Fearless Predictions

We're down to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, Major League Baseball just opened the season in Japan, and so, because we are where we are in the sports calendar, I have a few predictions to make. Of course, they have nothing to do with March Madness or America's pastime. While these may be positioned front and center in the minds of most sports fans right now, the only thing I really care about is next month's NFL draft, because my Dolphins, the worst team in the league, have the number one pick. And the sports media has been speculating wildly about what they might do with it. I've seen a lot of different theories, which surprises me, because in my mind, there's only one direction the Dolphins will go. I will detail that here, as well as a few other ideas I have about how the season will play out.

1. They'll draft Chris Long, DE from Virginia.The big complaint that the media seems to have (and maybe the actual GMs and coaches who do the job, but you never know) is that drafting #1 means a team is automatically forced to overpay whoever they pick to the tune of $30 million or so. Which is why there has been so much talk about how Mr. Parcells and Mr. Ireland would like to trade that pick. The problem seems to be a lack of no-brainers in this year's draft class (and that's not a reference to Wonderlick scores). There are no Peyton Mannings or Calvin Johnsons or Reggie Bushes, and while that's one reason the Dolphins would like to trade down, it's also why few if any teams are willing to trade up. So it seems likely that Miami will be stuck with that number one pick and the $30 million price tag, and if you're going to throw that money anywhere, the safest bet is Chris Long. Aside from being physically gifted, he's a great, smart football player, relatively injury-free, and known for his "high character." I put that in quotes because it's sort of a vague commodity in my mind, but one that the Dolphins apparently value. Long is a better bet than LSU's Glenn Dorsey because of Dorsey's leg injury, he's a better bet than BC's Matt Ryan because you just never know how quarterbacks are going to transition to the League AND you potentially have a logjam of stop-gap quarterbacks on the roster already with McCown and Beck. The other name that has been tossed around seriously is Michigan's Jake Long, an offensive tackle. My sense from what I've read is that there isn't a huge drop off between Jake Long and the next six tackles available, so why spend $30 million on a number one guy when you can get someone almost as good in the second or third round? Chris Long will be the guy. Mark it down.

2. They'll keep Ricky Williams, unless... Because of his multiple drug offenses, Ricky is not really tradable, or at least, what they can get for Ricky doesn't come close to his potential upside. Which is this: Here's a potentially great player, physically very healthy from the waist down, who costs the team almost nothing. Ronnie Brown proved that he's a legit star last season but also proved that he needs an understudy to step in, especially now coming off an ACL. Ricky may still be capable of taking over a game. With Jesse Chatman gone to the Jets in free agency, the Dolphins are left with untested (and undersized) Patrick Cobbs, and third-down back Lorenzo Booker. The only way the Dolphins don't keep Ricky, in my mind, is if a steal of a running back falls in their lap in the draft. However, with needs at OL, DL, CB, WR, and LB, I don't see them making that move. The Dolphins will be a ground-heavy offense next year, and I expect 600-900 yards from Ricky Williams.

3. Jason Taylor will not be traded. Maybe they could get some great draft picks for the 33 year-old Taylor, but that's not the point. Jason is still a great player, especially when utilized correctly, and I don't believe the Dolphins are willing to part with him. Yes, the team is rebuilding, but in this league, teams are always playing to win, because the margin between 10-6 and 6-10 is unbelievably slim. That's exactly why Parcells isn't going to start next season with an expansion team. They'll be rebuilding for the future but hoping to win right away, and keeping the defense's best player (by far) is a good way to help that cause. In '08, part of Jason Taylor's job will be mentoring Chris Long, who looks to be the Jason Taylor of the future.

August 16, 2006

So, they thwarted the terrorist plot, apparently, which is good news for all of us, but especially for me, since the alleged day that it was to take place -- 8/16/06 -- is also the day when the episode I am writing for the aforementioned (or actually, not really mentioned at all, just alluded to) TV show starts prepping for production. That these two major world events were to fall on the same day is not lost on me. I've always known I it was somehow all about me.

It's actually the world news that keeps me awake after midnight, when I should be going to sleep -- I have about five scenes to write/rewrite tomorrow in order to hand the script in to the showrunner on time. It's been an exhaustive process, but I have learned (sort of) to stop obsessing about every little piece of dialogue and indeed, direction and just get the stuff down. When all is said and done it will have taken me a week to write half the script and rewrite all of it, with some help on the front end from my fellow staff members.

As I am disappointed every year when the NFL draft passes me by, I will be similarly crushed if the Emmy voters overlook me in 2007. I don't have much else to say. It's late. But I'd like to start making this a bit more regular.

I see you've added on...

Here's a mostly-LA experience, although of course it could happen anywhere. The fiancee and I met up with a couple we're friends with a few nights ago to see "Broken Flowers." We saw the movie and enjoyed it, and also saw that the fiancee's female counterpart had gone from a small b-cup to a generous d in the time since we had last seen each other. Neither of us were sure exactly what the protocol is for this situation: Address the new chestiness, or ignore it? By ignoring, I believe, we run the risk of coming off as silently sitting in judgement. (There is no way not to notice, by the way, especially since she was wearing a tiny top, so our failure to acknowlege could not be written off as an oversight). For me to say something ("bueno tetas!") would be inappropriate, and I would have rightly incurred the wrath of the fiancee. So my conclusion is that the fiancee should, in such situations, say something (either with all of us there or when the ladies are alone) like, "did you specifically instruct the doctor to attach them to your collarbones or was he just thinking outside the box?"
That way it's out in the open and nobody has to be uncomfortable.

Basquiat

There's an exhibit of Jean-Michel Basquiat here at LA's MOCA, so we went. The artist's comments on racial injustice are tough to miss (rather than go into it I'll just say go see the exhibit if you're in town), and remind me of moving to New York City in the late 1980s, when, in the wake of Howard Beach and Bernard Goetz and the Central Park Jogger and Tawana Brawley and goodness, the list goes on and on -- race relations were a hot topic, with many people happy to throw in their two cents. Louis Farrakhan, Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, Chuck D and Public Enemy, students erecting and living in shanty villages on college campuses to protest America's investment in still-embracing-apartheid South Africa... Man. The gulf between black and white, and how to possibly narrow it, that was THE THING.

I myself was writing a play at the time about a black caddy working at an (obviously) white country club.

But that's not the embarrassing thing. The embarrassing thing is that I was looking at Basquiat's paintings, and seeing phrases he had written on them, like "the irony of a negro cop," and could not help the thought from formulating in my brain: "That's so dated." As in, awareness of racial inequalities -- so 80's, you know? Of course, it was very early 90's too, when you consider Rodney King et al. But the larger point looms, which is that nobody's standing up and making any noise about race relations these days, unless it's the relationship of red state voters to NASCAR. I guess that means that racial injustice is a thing of the past, right?

Maybe just in the eyes of this administration. Now. Before anyone thinks I'm about to go into an anti-Bush rant, I'm not. It's not that I don't think it's warranted, it's just that rants to me smack of two other things that start with R: rhetoric and rarely original. The objective truth of the matter is that Iraq is item #1 on the agenda with W, and I'm not sure what's second. Maybe it's terrorism. Maybe after that it's North Korea, Iran, the Supreme Court, drilling in Alaska, stem cell research, faith-based initiatives. I dunno, and I'm not judging. Because that would be rhetorical and rarely original, as I've said. What it brings up, and what I think is interesting, is exactly how much the administration's interests dictate what is perceived as relevant in our society. Sleeper cells, if you read the newspapers, are having more impact on our lives than white folks and black folks (not to mention everybody else) getting along.

I remember back in 2000, during the Democratic Primary, my-then-idol Bill Bradley was facing off against Al Gore. And I guess he had won an early caucus and was getting a lot of press. Bradley, having played ten years on a mostly-black basketball team (the Knicks) in a mostly-black league (the NBA) had sort of matured as a man with race and it's associated issues as a constant backdrop, and felt that they are at the core of what ills our country. As a result, his political agenda was starkly different to what we're experiencing today. "If I'm president, I want one thing to be known," Bradley said in an interview, "if you want to please the boss, one of the things you'd better show is how your department or agency has furthered tolerance and racial understanding."

If this sounds a little breathless, I'll also say that Bradley received a fair amount of criticism from black leaders for saying a lot and not doing so much. So who knows where we'd be if he was elected. But I'm pretty sure I would have reacted differently to the Basquiat show, for whatever that's worth.

Call the guy, make a golf date...

My agent calls yesterday. No news on the next pitch meeting, but there is this guy, a movie producer, apparently, who is looking for someone to play golf with. "Give the guy a call, make a date to play golf," says the agent. It's funny to consider how this works. Are there a number of writers competing for this golf date or do I have an exclusive deal here? Maybe I should have asked that upfront before I made the call, which was, by the way, suitably awkward. Producer's assistant answers, takes my name, puts me on hold for a moment, then comes back to say producer is away from his desk. Voicemail? Certainly. "Umm...Hi Z, I'm X, I'm Y's friend, the golfer? And I guess I'm supposed to call you to make a golf date, but really the idea is just to seduce you with my golf game into listening to and then giving me scads of money for, one or more of the movie ideas I have filed away? What do you think? Is Wednesday good?"

I haven't heard back.

Yeah, they're passing...

Okay, so the thrill of working my way into a major TV network executive's office to pitch a show idea suffered flameout today, as said exec passed on said show idea. Since this is my first post, and I'm not sure whether I really even want to devote time and space to talking about my adventures in the entertainment industry, I'm not yet going to name any names. But I will say that it's an educational experience, trying to convince somebody to commit (I think) hundreds of thousands of dollars to bring your little imaginary world of people to televised life. You realize, or at least I did, that the whole thing is completely arbitrary. I could've pitched the most flawless version of a show about horses (not the real subject of my show) but if said executive has unpleasant memories of stepping in horseshit while jogging in Central Park (NYers know about this), it doesn't matter how good the idea is. Nothing's a guaranteed success, so once you get in that room and you've done all your research and fleshed out the characters and memorized all the little jokes you're going to tell and rehearsed endlessly with your fiancee patiently pretending to be interested every single time, it's about stumbling upon a decision-maker whose personal make-up allows him or her to connect with your idea. So we will be moving on to another decision-maker at another network soon. Everybody keep your fingers crossed. I'll post updates as things progress, and when I figure out whether it's possible to be more specific about details, I'll maybe start dropping some names.