Fearless Predictions

We're down to the Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA Basketball Tournament, Major League Baseball just opened the season in Japan, and so, because we are where we are in the sports calendar, I have a few predictions to make. Of course, they have nothing to do with March Madness or America's pastime. While these may be positioned front and center in the minds of most sports fans right now, the only thing I really care about is next month's NFL draft, because my Dolphins, the worst team in the league, have the number one pick. And the sports media has been speculating wildly about what they might do with it. I've seen a lot of different theories, which surprises me, because in my mind, there's only one direction the Dolphins will go. I will detail that here, as well as a few other ideas I have about how the season will play out.

1. They'll draft Chris Long, DE from Virginia.The big complaint that the media seems to have (and maybe the actual GMs and coaches who do the job, but you never know) is that drafting #1 means a team is automatically forced to overpay whoever they pick to the tune of $30 million or so. Which is why there has been so much talk about how Mr. Parcells and Mr. Ireland would like to trade that pick. The problem seems to be a lack of no-brainers in this year's draft class (and that's not a reference to Wonderlick scores). There are no Peyton Mannings or Calvin Johnsons or Reggie Bushes, and while that's one reason the Dolphins would like to trade down, it's also why few if any teams are willing to trade up. So it seems likely that Miami will be stuck with that number one pick and the $30 million price tag, and if you're going to throw that money anywhere, the safest bet is Chris Long. Aside from being physically gifted, he's a great, smart football player, relatively injury-free, and known for his "high character." I put that in quotes because it's sort of a vague commodity in my mind, but one that the Dolphins apparently value. Long is a better bet than LSU's Glenn Dorsey because of Dorsey's leg injury, he's a better bet than BC's Matt Ryan because you just never know how quarterbacks are going to transition to the League AND you potentially have a logjam of stop-gap quarterbacks on the roster already with McCown and Beck. The other name that has been tossed around seriously is Michigan's Jake Long, an offensive tackle. My sense from what I've read is that there isn't a huge drop off between Jake Long and the next six tackles available, so why spend $30 million on a number one guy when you can get someone almost as good in the second or third round? Chris Long will be the guy. Mark it down.

2. They'll keep Ricky Williams, unless... Because of his multiple drug offenses, Ricky is not really tradable, or at least, what they can get for Ricky doesn't come close to his potential upside. Which is this: Here's a potentially great player, physically very healthy from the waist down, who costs the team almost nothing. Ronnie Brown proved that he's a legit star last season but also proved that he needs an understudy to step in, especially now coming off an ACL. Ricky may still be capable of taking over a game. With Jesse Chatman gone to the Jets in free agency, the Dolphins are left with untested (and undersized) Patrick Cobbs, and third-down back Lorenzo Booker. The only way the Dolphins don't keep Ricky, in my mind, is if a steal of a running back falls in their lap in the draft. However, with needs at OL, DL, CB, WR, and LB, I don't see them making that move. The Dolphins will be a ground-heavy offense next year, and I expect 600-900 yards from Ricky Williams.

3. Jason Taylor will not be traded. Maybe they could get some great draft picks for the 33 year-old Taylor, but that's not the point. Jason is still a great player, especially when utilized correctly, and I don't believe the Dolphins are willing to part with him. Yes, the team is rebuilding, but in this league, teams are always playing to win, because the margin between 10-6 and 6-10 is unbelievably slim. That's exactly why Parcells isn't going to start next season with an expansion team. They'll be rebuilding for the future but hoping to win right away, and keeping the defense's best player (by far) is a good way to help that cause. In '08, part of Jason Taylor's job will be mentoring Chris Long, who looks to be the Jason Taylor of the future.